By Russell S. Kim
Science, Reality, and Political Decisions
Today on DrudgeReport.com a link of the Reuter Story that headlined. Italy muzzled scientist who foresaw quake. If you were just an on looker or what the Floridians like to call a Rubber-Necker, you would think that this was a case, and an immediate indignation of politicians would naturally follow. The natural reactions to this story might have been:
Some religious nut job who was an anti-Science caused this.
Some right wing politicians did not heed the warning of the scientists
Politicians ignored the science again.
However, after digging the story further, these assumptions had mixed results. Typically, the earth quake prediction turns out be a very inaccurate science.[1] The scientists have been trying to predict the earth quakes various ways.[2] The scientists have a very strong natural incentives to find such methods. Imagine the scientists who comes up with the methods, the Nobel Prize is ahead for the very person. In addition, the such method would forever have the name of the founders, the Giuliani's method, if the seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani pioneered the such method.
The major of L'Aquila is Massimo Cialente was elected as a major on May 2007 from the center-left party, The Union, which is the part of the Democratic Party Coalition. The Major is a former physician and a medical researcher. [3,4] Thus, he was one of the experts of science. He most likely was not a strong religious politician. Here is USA, most democratic politicians have relative hostile view of religion and constituencies largely have negative and anti-religious view, often using Christian values as polemical devices to attack Christians in order to ameliorate one's political career and the party. Traditionally, European's center-left view on Christianity has been much more hostile than American's counterpart. [5,6] However, the Americans are getting there for the giddyup-idness of the Europeans and the collectivists.
The reality is that the seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani, who have predicted the earthquake and sounded the alarmed from his vans might and might not have been right. There was no way of knowing that his prediction would come into calamity. However, this warning was based on the recent scientific studies during last 10+ years that suggests some correlation between the earthquake and radon gas concentration. [7] However, note that unlike lot of other scientific area, earthquake science's ability to warn of near immediate earthquake is bad. It is often the scientific data of this sort pan out not to be correct. The earthquake predictions and their failure to materialized are too numerous to mention. However, one certainty we have as of today is that the earthquake is and has been almost impossible to predict so far.
Like all scientific studies, many of these have to be measured and need to have relatively consistent results in order for them to be validated. After all, a science is a study of observation and recording. Theories and Hypothesis have to be proven and able to be repeated many times with the very similar, if not the same results. [8] The problem with the earthquake science is that, earthquake just cannot be made by the scientists who study them. So, only time when their scientific assumptions are tested is when the real thing happens. It seems that radon gas measurement is one of the latest technique that seismologist uses to detect and study earthquakes.
This is like lot of natural science we face today. What was once deemed to be a solid theory turn out not to be the truth. Often, the more modern data is dismissed and those who hold these theories likes a religious belief become very hostile toward the new scientific ideas, theories, and results. This is rightly so since there is so much riding on hostile people's economy. Often, these people, the truth may or may not matter at all. They hold their life to their dogma. If the sky turns out not to be made out of silver and the x-scientists and the believer of such theories holds the theory as the truth and oppose the newer knowledge, what are we to make of such people? Such scientists are not scholar; rather a hack and those who subscribed to the disproven theories are just lemmings and trolls.
According to the book "The Big One", Radon is a radioactive gas that is emitted into earth atmosphere where it has 3.8 days of half-life. [9] It says "Studies made in the vicinity of faults have found unusual high concentration of radon, and its isotops thoron… they found a gradual increase in concentrations until the time of the earth quake. After the earth quake occurs, radon emission decreases rapidly…" If this pan out to be true for the Italian Earth quake, we would have additional data that can validate the radon gas theory. This may and may not mean that this is the answer to predicting the earthquake for sure. However, this data does add to the Radon Gas theory credibility. The scientist who made the earthquake prediction was (likely) relying on this theory and he warns others based on this theory.
The seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani had lot of guts to warn this of impending disaster.
"Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger." The action might have put his career on the line, and if the thing did not panned out, he would have been another tin-foiled leader if the reputation of such positions or study was highly regarded. In reality, there is way of knowing the fate of such a person. One sure thing is that his prediction was based on the relatively recent data and goes against the conventional earthquake prediction patterns. Although, we cannot disregard the past data, it is also unwise to disregard the most recent data based on radon gas. I think one of the valuable lesson we have learned from this Italian experience was that the there is some validity to the Radon Gas theory.
"As the media asked questions about the authorities' alleged failure to safeguard the population ahead of the quake, the head of the National Geophysics Institute dismissed Giuliani's predictions." Apparently, appointed experts of the NGI dismissed the Giuliani's prediction. Is he a political appointee or a appointment of scientific committees based on ones merit and depth of experiences. Was he just a scientific organizer or did he actually do something tangible? In addition, would the media have been chastising and ridiculing the major if the major followed through the warnings of the Giuliani and the earth quake did not panned out? Would the media gone after the scientist for making such a prediction? It is likely that the media would have created some story that may and may been dramatic. The media largely do not hold the fidelity to the truths; rather, it focuses on its image from the viewers. Although, the media has stake in popularity and ad revenue, it is more import for media to keep its image intact as an every hyperbolic, every suave, bipolar-like, and manic windows of its audiences. Therefore, in order to keep their tradition, they would have created a story to meet their traditional and ever-so desired images.
"Every time there is an earthquake there are people who claim to have predicted it," he said. "As far as I know nobody predicted this earthquake with precision. It is not possible to predict earthquakes.""
This statement is true so far.
The Reuter story concludes with the statement "We have earthquakes but then we forget and do nothing. It's not in our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in areas where there could be strong earthquakes,"
It is often the case of the politicians where the conflict of their visions collides with the reality and the science. The politicians, even with all of their good intentions, even their intentions do not amount to anything where the intentions bring negative productivities into the masses, looks out to gain political capital regardless of the situation, topic, or plight of anyone whom they seek to help. They could be from China, USA, France, or even Italy, almost all the politicians' face with the collision course with the reality and science.
What do most politicians do, especially those who are unconstrained by the reality and the science, they act independently from the present and past data. They would likely to disregard the data because the data is too binding and restrictive to the politicians' goal of maintaining people under their thumbs. Their intentions are always said to good and never to be questioned. They will say, we need to keep the social harmony or they say the data is "spreading alarm."
Another lesson in life where the intentions of x person do not matter what so ever and should be disregarded nothing more than a possible winning lottery number.
[1 General earth quake prediction and prediction inaccuracies : http://www.pnsn.org/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html ]
[2 fuji research "Earth Quake Prediction" 08/1997
Earthquake Prediction
: http://www.fujitaresearch.com/reports/earthquakes.html]
[3 Massimo Cialente http://www.examiner.com/Subject-Massimo_Cialente.html]
[4: Massimo Cialente Wikipedia Entry: http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massimo_Cialente ]
[5: European Hostility to Christianity:
The Cube and the Cathedral: Europe, America, and Politics Without God,
0465092667 by George Weigel ]
[6: Assault on Christianity: http://www.catholicleague.org/research/assault_on_Christianity.htm ]
[7: Recent Radon-Gas Studies:
[source Soil gas radon as an earthquake precursor: some considerations on data improvement: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6TVS-3VNGH88-2&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=c59371fd8df2f8bdf4112d1116d28ca1 ]
[8: Science defined by Wikipedia : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science ]
[9: "The Big One" The Next Great California Earthquake: Why, Where, and When It Will Happen. A comprehensive reference on how to assess potential earthquake and tsumani risks
0970972504, page 95 ]
[10: Original Story "Italy muzzled scientist who foresaw quake
" : http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L6566682.htm"
Italy muzzled scientist who foresaw quake
06 Apr 2009 11:22:00 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Gavin Jones
ROME, April 6 (Reuters) - An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing dozens of people, but was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population.
The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued at regular intervals, creating mounting alarm in the medieval city, about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome.
Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.
Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.
Italy's Civil Protection agency held a meeting of the Major Risks Committee, grouping scientists charged with assessing such risks, in L'Aquila on March 31 to reassure the townspeople.
"The tremors being felt by the population are part of a typical sequence ... (which is) absolutely normal in a seismic area like the one around L'Aquila," the civil protection agency said in a statement on the eve of that meeting.
"It is useful to underline that it is not in any way possible to predict an earthquake," it said, adding that the agency saw no reason for alarm but was nonetheless effecting "continuous monitoring and attention".
As the media asked questions about the authorities' alleged failure to safeguard the population ahead of the quake, the head of the National Geophysics Institute dismissed Giuliani's predictions.
"Every time there is an earthquake there are people who claim to have predicted it," he said. "As far as I know nobody predicted this earthquake with precision. It is not possible to predict earthquakes."
Enzo Boschi said the real problem for Italy was a long-standing failure to take proper precautions despite a history of tragic quakes.
"We have earthquakes but then we forget and do nothing. It's not in our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in areas where there could be strong earthquakes," he said.
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